IMF lifts 2026 growth forecast to 3.1%, keeps inflation projection at 4.7%

The International Monetary Fund projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, up 0.1 percentage point from its July forecast of 3.0%. Its October outlook still puts 2027 growth at 3.4% and this year’s inflation at 4.7%, unchanged from July’s published figures.

July had already raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 4.7%.

The October briefing describes a widening divide between economies benefiting from AI investment or favorable terms of trade and energy-importing or lower-income countries facing greater pressure. It warns that the room to absorb further shocks is narrowing.

Risks include prolonged Middle East tensions, high energy and food prices, rising sovereign bond yields and renewed trade friction. The IMF describes AI as a two-sided risk: disappointing expectations could trigger financial-market corrections, while faster productivity gains could improve the outlook.

The IMF urges rebuilding fiscal room, targeted and temporary household support, and monetary policy tailored to each economy.