Growth, prices, labor and monetary policy, with periods and release vintages kept distinct.
Reporting as of 10-07-2026
Official economic indicators
GDP growth
1.5% SAAR
Q2 2026 · Second estimate · BEA
Period Q2 2026 · Second estimate · BEA
PCE inflation
+0.2% m/m;
+3.7% y/y
Period July 2026 · BEA
Unemployment
4.1% SA
Period Jul 2026 · BLS
Different periods and units. GDP growth is a quarterly annualized pace (SAAR). PCE inflation includes a monthly change and a year-over-year rate. Unemployment is the U-3 rate, seasonally adjusted. Dated observations with source links live on Markets.
Reporting & analysis
Federal Reserve
The record of the September meeting shows a committee united on its quarter-point increase and largely expecting another, with inflation risks seen tilted higher and the jump in bond yields not treated as a brake.
Economy
A unanimous vote lifted the repo rate a quarter point to 5.5%, and a new "calibrated tightening" stance tells borrowers the next move is a hike or a pause, not a cut.
Economy
Imports jumped $17.2 billion on crude oil, gold and semiconductors, and capital goods imports set a record. The gap was wider than economists expected.
Economy
Fuel costs dominated September's survey. The headline index slipped to 54.9 and hiring turned up, leaving the Fed with a services sector that is still growing while its costs climb.
Banking / Regulation
The community banking group challenges the regulator's legal authority and Protego's conditional approval. The OCC has described the disputed rule as a clarification of existing powers.
Economy / Energy
The four-month plan calls for a substantial diesel release in the first 20 days, while leaders pledge to keep energy trade open within the group.
Economy / Federal Reserve
A department spokesperson confirmed the position to Reuters. The Fed watchdog found no grounds for a criminal referral, while identifying management failures and recommending corrective action.
Middle East
Riyadh is weighing a coastal push on Bab el-Mandeb or a broader multi-front assault, six officials told Reuters — a Saudi-directed operation would mark a new flashpoint as the strait becomes the Hormuz alternative.
Economy / Jobs
Unemployment reaches 4.2%, wages rise 0.1% on the month, and July–August payroll gains are cut by a combined 60,000.
Economy / Preview
The October 2 release will test whether August’s stronger hiring held up. Payroll revisions, unemployment and wage growth will matter alongside the headline job count.
Geopolitics / Middle East
U.S. Central Command confirmed Wednesday that American forces and equipment have left Erbil Air Base, closing out Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq. The move ends a 23-year presence as Iran-backed militias keep their arms.
Economy
Real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter — revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate — as BEA also published August personal income and PCE prices.
Economy / Data
Consumer confidence tumbled to 81.9 in September — the lowest since April 2014 — as households fretted about jobs and fuel costs. The labor-market data told a calmer story: openings fell, but layoffs stayed near a record low.
Industry / Steel
President Trump announced Monday that Mesabi Metallics plans a $15 billion steel mill in Iowa's Lee County — a proposal with no disclosed financing, from a company whose Minnesota project took 20 years and a bankruptcy to deliver.
Trade / Tariffs
Washington and Beijing have named the $30-billion-each product lists behind the Board of Trade tariff deal. The lists are approved; the cuts are not: no final rates, no dates, and domestic legal procedures still pending.
Oil / Iran–China
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that China has substantially reduced its support for Iran and that only about 15 million barrels of Iranian crude remain on the water — the final shipments to China, delivered within two weeks.
Banks / Regulation
The Fed's Sept. 24 stablecoin proposals set capital charges that fall as issuers grow. As the 60-day comment window opens, what the tiers, the bank path, and Washington's Treasury-demand strategy really mean.
Policy / Trade
Friday's bill names InnoLight and Eoptolink, extends the existing Chinese-semiconductor procurement ban to the light-speed modules at the heart of the AI buildout — and gives suppliers five years to find alternatives.
Energy / Markets
The bank's Sept. 26 note models the full chain: trapped diesel first pushes American pump prices down, but once storage fills, squeezed refining margins force run cuts — and Europe pays more from day one.
Banks / Regulation
The Fed is preparing to reindex asset thresholds set in 2019 — pushing the toughest oversight line toward $1 trillion and easing the lower one toward $150 billion. U.S. Bancorp, Capital One, PNC and Truist get room to grow.
Trade / Congress
Moreno and Slotkin pushed their unanimous-consent bid to next week to win over the lone holdout — slipping past Trump's meeting with Xi. The bill has 51 Senate supporters; the House version has crossed 100 co-sponsors.
Markets
Wednesday was the worst day for U.S. bonds in nearly 18 months. The Treasury will repurchase up to $6 billion of 20- and 30-year bonds on Thursday — and the market has barely noticed.
Economy / OECD
The OECD's September outlook lifts 2026 global growth to 2.9% on AI-driven investment — then warns the buffers that absorbed the Middle East energy shock are depleting, trimming 2027 to 3.0% with inflation running hotter.
Markets / Trade
Slotkin and Moreno want unanimous Senate approval this week for a bill that would lock the Chinese-auto ban into law — and strip the White House of waiver power.
Economy / inflation
A quarterly Federal Reserve survey of about 500 finance chiefs shows expected price increases jumping to 5.3% for 2026, up from 3.6% at the start of the year. 'Monetary policy' just became their top-cited concern.
Markets / Energy
ICE gasoil futures spiked as much as 7% Wednesday morning on a report of a 90-day US export ban — which the White House called 'fake news' — before easing after Energy Secretary Wright said a ban 'definitely doesn't work.'
Macro / Federal Reserve
September's flash PMI data came in red-hot, Fed Governor Michael Barr warned more rate hikes are likely needed, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest since 2007 — squeezing stocks, bonds, and would-be homebuyers all at once.
Markets / Bonds
A 3.1-basis-point tail, the weakest bid-to-cover since 2018, and the smallest indirect-bidder take since 2020 made Wednesday's sale a demand warning — and deepened the bond rout.
U.S.–China
Three weeks after Reuters reported Beijing was assembling a large CEO delegation, the Journal says those plans have unraveled — resetting Thursday's summit as a symbolic affair, not a transactional one.
U.S. close
The Composite finished at 27,122.09, up 2.26% — the first closing high since June 2’s 27,093.90. Semiconductors led; the S&P 500 rose 1.49% but stayed below its August closing peak. A softer 10-year CMT and cheaper crude futures rounded
Macro / Federal Reserve
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned Monday that disinflation "would necessarily be painful" — a hawkish turn that collides with Chair Warsh’s insistence the Fed needn’t harm the labor market.
German elections
The far right's second state victory this month came with a historic humiliation for the chancellor's party: 4.9%, below the 5% threshold. In Berlin, the Left topped the poll at 25.7%. The firewall holds — the CDU bleeds.
Markets
Telix Pharmaceuticals will pay US$1.65 billion upfront — US$1.25 billion of it in new shares — for German radiopharma maker ITM, plus up to US$700 million tied to FDA approvals and 2030 sales milestones. Telix shareholders vote in November.
Markets
H.R. 5334 gives the White House statutory power to hit Russian goods with duties up to 500% and secondary tariffs up to 100% on the top buyers of Russian oil and gas — signed quietly Friday with no ceremony and no statement.
Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve supervisors knew -- or should have known -- about Silicon Valley Bank's vulnerabilities as early as March 2022 and failed to act, the Starling Advisory Group's initial report finds; social media did not trigger the run.
Markets
The first strike on the Saudi capital since the July escalation brought flames near King Khalid airport, an intercepted ballistic missile and air-raid alerts — with Brent above $100 and Washington warning of rapid escalation.
Economy
BLS series data show Ohio's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.3% in August, the lowest in series history. D.C. nonfarm payrolls were down 3.6% from a year earlier.
Pharma
The September 18 approval pairs Lilly's imlunestrant with abemaciclib for ER-positive, HER2-negative, ESR1-mutated advanced breast cancer after endocrine therapy — median progression-free survival 11.1 months in the trial subgroup.
Economy
Saudi Arabia's Gulf export workaround ships 60 million barrels east — to China, Korea, India and Japan — while European term buyers get nothing. Physical Dated Brent topped $130.
Results
Europe's biggest automaker flags about 10 billion euros in one-off charges, including a 6-billion-euro Porsche goodwill writedown, as China collapses, EVs squeeze margins and tariffs bite. Shares fell as much as 7.5%.
Rates
The widely expected hike — from 1.0%, three months after the last move — lands with two dissents and a dovish-tilted statement. The yen slipped as traders priced quarterly hikes the BOJ hasn't promised.
Trade
Von der Leyen floated making Canada the EU’s first ‘associate member’ — a status that exists nowhere in EU law. Trump called it ‘laughable’ and threatened ‘very heavy’ tariffs if the intent is hostile; Carney: Canada picks its own partners.
Policy
The Graham Russia-Iran sanctions act would authorize duties up to 100% on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas — China and India top the list — after Johnson rebuffed a GOP push to strip the tariff power over midterm price fears.
Economy
Advance sales hit $773.9B vs. the 0.8% consensus gain. The core control group surged 1.4% — the cleanest demand read — though higher pump prices did part of the work. Released Wednesday morning, hours before the Fed's rate decision.
Federal Reserve
The quarter-point move was priced at 93%. The projections were not: the median dot now sees another hike this year, no cuts in 2027, and the new chair used his press conference to explain that inflation — not growth — is running policy.
Bank of England
August CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1%, in line with forecasts, as petrol and diesel prices surged. But core inflation held at 2.6% and services at 3.4% — the split the Bank of England must weigh when it sets rates on Thursday.
EXPECTATIONS
The Federal Reserve calendar locks a two-day September meeting and SEP. August CPI is already on the record; the statement, projections, and press conference are not.
Economy
Core prices rose 0.3% in August and 2.4% over the year, while gasoline accounted for more than a third of the monthly headline increase.
PPI
Diesel drove much of the goods-price increase, while transportation costs rose and trade margins fell. Inflation excluding food, energy and trade services held at 4.7% annually.
Commodities / Energy
Brent traded near $107.87 on Sunday evening after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline. Friday’s settle was $104.61 — well above the Labor Day levels that first put $100 in view.
Economy
BLS (USDL-26-1435): Nonfarm +162,000 vs prior-12-mo avg +31,000. U-3 4.1% unchanged; unemployed ~7.0 million. AHE +10¢/+0.3% to $37.75 (+3.1% y/y). June/July revisions combined +55,000. Next: Oct 2, 2026.
Economy
BLS (USDL 26-1434): Q2 2026 revised. Nonfarm productivity +1.4% SAAR (output +1.7%; hours +0.3%). ULC +1.2%. Labor share 52.8% — lowest since the series began in Q1 1947. Manufacturing productivity revised to +2.4%.
Economy
Census and BEA (BEA 26-40 / CB 26-142): July goods-and-services deficit $88.6B, up $17.4B from revised June $71.2B. Exports $310.7B (-2.1%); imports $399.3B (+2.8%). Seasonally adjusted, not price-adjusted.
Policy
Prepared remarks titled In Our Time, posted August 28, 2026. Warsh did not announce a rate change. He said inflation remains too high, labor is consistent with full employment, and he is committed to a discipline, not a decision.
Commodities / Energy
Week ending August 21, 2026: Lower 48 working gas was 3,184 billion cubic feet, up 15 from 3,169. Stocks were 30 billion cubic feet below last year and 167 billion cubic feet above the five-year average.
Labor / Policy
USDL 26-1430-NAT. Week ending August 22: advance SA initial claims 203,000, down 4,000 from the previous week's revised 207,000. Four-week average 205,500. Week ending August 15: insured unemployment 1,778,000.
Policy
The 08-27-2026 account of the 07-22-2026 – 07-23-2026 meeting records that all members agreed to keep the three key rates unchanged. Members judged inflation risks to the upside. This is the record of that meeting, not a new rate decision.
Policy
The Monetary Policy Board moved the policy rate from 2.75 percent to 3.00 percent for the intermeeting period on August 27, 2026. Six members supported the increase. Hwang Kunil voted to keep the Base Rate at 2.75 percent.
Economy
The official second estimate is live on the Markets tape and at BEA. This preview is earlier coverage, not the current print. Figures below remain the July 30 advance vintage.
Policy
The 07-29-2026 decision left the target range unchanged. The 08-19-2026 minutes are the record of that meeting, not a new vote.
Rates
The current maximum is $2 billion. The larger operations apply to 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year nominal coupons, effective September 9 through November 4, 2026.
Prices
This is a monthly accounts release, not the quarterly GDP price line.
Economy
BEA’s advance estimate is the first reading of the quarter. Later vintages can revise it.
Understand the release
Method
BEA does not publish one GDP number for a quarter and walk away.
Method
A seasonally adjusted annual rate takes a quarter-to-quarter or month-to-month change, strips the usual seasonal pattern, and states it as if that pace lasted a year.
Method
The PCE price index is BEA’s chain-type index of prices paid for personal consumption.
Method
The federal funds rate is the overnight rate banks charge each other for reserve balances.
