U.S. Import Prices Rose 1.1% in September, Beating Expectations as the Annual Gain Hit a Four-Year High

Imported inflation accelerated in September by more than economists expected, and the increase was not just about fuel: prices rose across capital goods, industrial supplies and consumer goods as well.

U.S. import prices increased 1.1 percent in September following a 0.5 percent rise in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday, October 16, 2026, in its September release. The increase topped the 0.8 percent rise expected by economists polled by Reuters, after August was revised down from a previously reported 0.7 percent advance. Export prices increased 2.2 percent in September after rising 1.2 percent the previous month, against expectations for a 1.0 percent increase. Higher prices for both fuel imports and nonfuel imports drove the September advance in import prices.

Fuel surged, but the pressure was broader than energy

Prices for import fuel increased 4.8 percent in September following decreases of 0.2 percent in August and 6.8 percent in July. Petroleum and petroleum products rose 4.6 percent and natural gas rose 1.6 percent in the month. Outside fuel is the more telling line: nonfuel import prices increased 0.7 percent in September and have not declined on a monthly basis since August 2025. Capital goods prices rose 0.9 percent for the second consecutive month, nonfuel industrial supplies and materials increased 1.4 percent after a 1.3 percent advance in August, automotive vehicles, parts and engines rose 0.3 percent, and consumer goods excluding automotives rose 0.4 percent, while prices for foods, feeds and beverages were unchanged. That breadth is why readers should not dismiss the report as an energy story alone.

The annual gains are the largest since 2022

From September 2025 to September 2026, import prices rose 8.1 percent, the largest 12-month advance since the index increased 8.8 percent for the year ended July 2022, and up from a 6.7 percent annual pace in August. Fuel import prices increased 34.5 percent over the year, with petroleum and petroleum products up 35.4 percent and natural gas up 96.5 percent. Nonfuel import prices rose 6.0 percent over the year, the largest such increase since April 2022. One measurement point matters: import prices exclude tariffs and duties, so the September strength reflects prices set by foreign sellers and global commodity costs rather than the direct arithmetic of U.S. import taxes.

Export prices rose even faster than import prices

Prices for U.S. exports increased 11.6 percent for the year ended September 2026, the largest over-the-year rise since 2022, alongside the 2.2 percent monthly gain. Agricultural exports increased 2.6 percent in September, the largest monthly rise since November 2022, on higher prices for soybeans, corn and wheat, while nonagricultural exports rose 2.1 percent after a 1.3 percent increase in August and were up 11.8 percent over the year. Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials advanced 4.0 percent in September. Import prices from China increased 0.7 percent in September, the largest monthly advance since December 2021, and import prices from Canada rose 1.3 percent.

A difficult final data point before the Federal Reserve decides

The release closes a hard week for inflation data: the government this week reported strong increases in consumer and producer prices, and reporting on the figures said economists saw inflation broadening beyond the energy sector. TickerGrove has already covered September consumer prices, which rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier. Financial markets still expected the Federal Reserve to skip raising interest rates at its October 27-28 meeting and tighten policy in December, after the central bank raised its overnight benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent. The import-price report landed the same morning the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.7 percent in September, so policymakers enter the blackout period beginning Saturday, October 17 with output holding up and imported inflation accelerating.

What to watch in the October indexes

The tests ahead are whether fuel prices keep climbing after a 4.8 percent September jump, whether nonfuel imports post yet another monthly increase after more than a year without a decline, and whether export prices can sustain an 11.6 percent annual pace. The October import and export price indexes are scheduled for release on Tuesday, November 17, 2026. Until then, the honest summary is narrow but useful: import prices beat expectations in September, the annual gain is the largest since July 2022, and the pressure is coming from fuel and from a broad range of other goods at once.