US Consumer Confidence Jumps in October, Beating Forecasts by a Wide Margin

US consumer confidence rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, far above forecasts, as views of business conditions improved.

The Conference Board released its October survey on Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026.

The reading beat the forecast of 81 from economists polled by Reuters by 10.7 points, a TickerGrove calculation.

Confidence revived to June levels, the Conference Board said.

Both halves of the survey improved

The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4.

That index tracks views of current business and labor market conditions.

The Expectations Index rose 6.9 points to 72.6.

It tracks the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions.

The expectations gain only partly reversed three straight monthly declines.

September's headline reading was revised up to 84.2 from 81.9.

The labor market differential improved 2.4 percentage points to 5.3%.

That gauge subtracts the share calling jobs hard to get from the share calling them plentiful.

In October, 26.7% of consumers called jobs plentiful, up from 24.3%.

More consumers also expected their income to rise, at 18.7% against 18.1%.

Cheaper gasoline helped, prices still bite

"Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions," said Fergus McCormick, senior economist at the Conference Board.

"The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October," he added.

Average 12-month inflation expectations eased to 5.8% but stayed elevated.

Write-in responses still showed frustration with rising costs, the release said.

References to prices and the cost of food and groceries rose in October.

"Consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that's persisted over the past few years," McCormick said.

Consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months.

McCormick linked that caution to higher prices eroding purchasing power.

Factories and home builders held up in September

Separate September data released Tuesday pointed the same way on activity.

Durable goods are products built to last at least three years.

New orders for durable goods rose 1.8% to $345.4 billion, the Census Bureau said.

That followed a 0.1% increase in August, and orders excluding transportation rose 0.5%.

Transportation equipment led the gain, up 4.6% to $119.8 billion.

Core capital goods orders exclude defense and aircraft orders.

They are a closely watched proxy for business spending on equipment.

Core capital goods orders rose 0.5% in September, below the 0.7% forecast.

Core orders had jumped 1.6% in August.

Shipments of core capital goods rose 1.2% in September.

Those shipments feed the equipment-spending part of the government's growth report.

Sales of new single-family houses were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 in September.

That was 0.6% below the revised August rate of 680,000.

Economists expected about 653,000, so the small decline beat forecasts.

Builders had 476,000 homes for sale, equal to 8.4 months of supply.

The median price of a new home sold was $400,400.

A steadier consumer meets the Fed

The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee opened a two-day meeting on Tuesday.

Its decision is due on Wednesday, with officials widely expected to hold rates steady.

The October survey closed on Oct. 21, so it cannot capture any reaction to that decision.

Third-quarter growth gets its first official estimate on Thursday.

What remains unknown

What remains unknown is whether October's jump starts a lasting recovery or fades like earlier upticks.

Expectations at 72.6 also remain far below the present situation reading of 120.4.

What to watch is the November survey, Thursday's growth estimate, and whether planned spending cuts show up in actual purchases.

The verified record is clear on the day itself: confidence beat forecasts by a wide margin, while factories and builders steadied.