Source checked

The U.S. deficit nears $2 trillion for fiscal 2026 as interest costs top $1 trillion

Spending grew faster than revenue as net interest topped $1 trillion for the first time and court-ordered tariff refunds cut customs revenue, the Treasury's final tally shows.

Sources

Based on the Treasury Department's Final Monthly Treasury Statement for fiscal 2026 and its Fiscal Data dataset, the Treasury's daily par yield curve, the Bureau of Economic Analysis's explainer on tariff refunds, the American Action Forum's summary of the Congressional Budget Office's September 2026 Monthly Budget Review, analysis by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, and reporting by CNBC and Trading Economics.

Budget totals are from the Treasury's Final Monthly Treasury Statement for fiscal 2026, released Oct. 16, 2026; fiscal 2026 ran from Oct. 1, 2025 to Sept. 30, 2026. The deficit as a share of GDP and the refund payout estimate are the Congressional Budget Office's Oct. 8 estimates. The 10-year yield is the Treasury's Oct. 16 par yield.

What “Source checked” means

The U.S. government ended fiscal 2026 with a deficit of $1.992 trillion, the Treasury said Friday, as spending growth outpaced revenue, net interest costs passed $1 trillion for the first time and refunds of tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court cut into customs revenue.

A $2 trillion year

The federal government ran a deficit of $1.992 trillion in fiscal 2026, the Treasury Department said Friday in its final Monthly Treasury Statement for the year that ended Sept. 30. That was $217 billion wider than the $1.775 trillion gap in fiscal 2025.

Revenue rose 3.2% to $5.403 trillion. Outlays grew faster, up 5.5% to $7.396 trillion. In dollar terms, only the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 produced larger deficits. The Congressional Budget Office, which published its own estimate of the year's results on Oct. 8, put the shortfall at about 6.2% of gross domestic product, up from 5.8% a year earlier.

To cover the gap and add to its cash balance, the Treasury borrowed a net $2.073 trillion from the public during the year, according to the statement.

Interest crosses $1 trillion

Net interest, the government's interest bill minus the interest it earns, reached $1.052 trillion, up from $970 billion a year earlier. That is the first time net interest has topped $1 trillion in a fiscal year, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonpartisan fiscal-policy group that tracks the monthly figures. Gross interest on Treasury securities, before netting out what the government collects, came to $1.360 trillion.

By function, net interest was the government's third-largest expense in fiscal 2026. Only Social Security, at $1.667 trillion, and Medicare, at $1.073 trillion, cost more. Interest outran national defense, at $965 billion, and the health category that includes Medicaid, at $1.026 trillion. Social Security spending rose $86 billion from the prior year and Medicare $76 billion.

How fast that bill grows depends partly on market rates. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 5.09%, according to the Treasury's daily par yield curve.

Tariff refunds drained customs revenue

Customs duties brought in a net $173.2 billion, down from $194.9 billion in fiscal 2025, even as tariffs collected at the border rose. Gross customs collections were $317.8 billion, but the Treasury paid out $144.6 billion in customs refunds, compared with $7.5 billion the year before. Net customs revenue was negative in May, June and July, when refunds exceeded new collections.

The refunds followed the Supreme Court's February ruling that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has estimated that the government owes affected importers about $166 billion, excluding interest. The CBO estimated that about $130 billion of that was paid out during fiscal 2026. A Treasury official said gross customs duties reached a record for the year, CNBC reported.

Corporate taxes fell as individual taxes rose

Individual income taxes, the government's largest revenue source, rose 7.1% to $2.846 trillion. Payroll taxes also increased. Corporate income taxes fell 15.6% to $381.4 billion from $452.1 billion. The CBO attributed the corporate decline to business tax changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, including larger deductions for some business investment.

A September swing tied to timing

September alone showed a deficit of $26.9 billion, compared with a surplus of $197.9 billion in September 2025. Part of the swing reflects the calendar. The Treasury noted that veterans' benefit payments were shifted from Sept. 1, 2026 into August. The Peterson Foundation estimated that, after adjusting for shifted payments, the September deficit would have been $137 billion larger than a year earlier. Trading Economics said forecasts had called for a September deficit of about $29 billion.

What comes next

The Treasury will publish its first monthly statement for fiscal 2027, covering October, on Nov. 12. Refunds of the struck-down tariffs are not finished. Based on the BEA and CBO estimates, roughly $36 billion of eligible refunds had not been paid by the end of the fiscal year, so some of the cost is likely to land in fiscal 2027's numbers.

The U.S. government spent almost $2 trillion more than it collected last year

The U.S. government's budget year ends on Sept. 30. On Friday the Treasury Department reported that, for the year just ended, the government spent $7.396 trillion and collected $5.403 trillion in taxes and other revenue. The difference, $1.992 trillion, is the deficit, and the government covers it by borrowing. The deficit was $217 billion bigger than the year before. One fast-growing cost is interest on the money the government already owes: for the first time, that net interest bill topped $1 trillion in a year. Money from tariffs also fell, because the government had to refund many tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled them unlawful.

FY2026 deficit $1.992T (+$217B); net interest $1.052T tops $1T; customs net $173B after $145B refunds; corporate taxes -15.6%

Treasury Final MTS FY2026 (released Oct. 16): deficit $1.992T vs $1.775T FY2025 (+$217B); revenue $5.403T (+3.2%), outlays $7.396T (+5.5%). CBO (Oct. 8 MBR, via AAF): 6.2% of GDP vs 5.8%; third-largest nominal deficit after FY2020/FY2021. Borrowing from the public $2.073T. Net interest $1.052T vs $970B (first above $1T per the Peterson Foundation); gross interest on Treasury securities $1.360T. By function: Social Security $1.667T (+$86B), Medicare $1.073T (+$76B), net interest $1.052T, health $1.026T, defense $965B. Customs net $173.2B vs $194.9B; gross $317.8B; refunds $144.6B vs $7.5B; net customs negative May-July after the February Supreme Court ruling on emergency-powers tariffs; BEA estimates about $166B owed ex-interest; CBO about $130B paid in FY2026. Individual income taxes $2.846T (+7.1%); corporate $381.4B vs $452.1B (-15.6%, One Big Beautiful Bill Act business provisions per CBO). September: $26.9B deficit vs $197.9B surplus; veterans' benefits shifted from Sept. 1 into August; Peterson Foundation: about $137B larger ex-timing; Trading Economics consensus about $29B. 10-year par yield 5.09% Oct. 16. Next MTS Nov. 12.

What is still unknown

It is not yet clear exactly how much more the government will refund for the struck-down tariffs, or when the remaining payments will be made. The Treasury's figures are on the government's cash-based accounting and can be revised in later reports.

Document trail

Sources & evidence

Sources used for this piece.

  1. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service

    Final Monthly Treasury Statement: Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2026 Through September 30, 2026

    Official government statistical report · 2026-10-16

  2. American Action Forum

    CBO: FY 2026 Budget Deficit Totaled $2 Trillion

    Analysis of Congressional Budget Office Monthly Budget Review · 2026-10-08

  3. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

    How are the International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariff refunds reflected in BEA's National Economic Accounts?

    Official agency explainer · 2026-04-30

  4. U.S. Department of the Treasury

    Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026

    Official market data · 2026-10-16

  5. U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data

    Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) dataset

    Official government dataset · 2026-10-16

  6. Peter G. Peterson Foundation

    The Current Federal Deficit and Debt

    Fiscal policy analysis · 2026-10-16

  7. CNBC

    U.S. budget deficit for 2026 fiscal year near $2 trillion

    News report · 2026-10-16

  8. Trading Economics

    US Budget Swings to Deficit in September

    Economic calendar report · 2026-10-16

Visual brief

Verified figures

Sources & evidence
  1. U.S. federal budget deficit

    $1.992 trillion

    USD

    Fiscal 2026 (Oct. 1, 2025 to Sept. 30, 2026)

    U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal ServiceFinal Monthly Treasury Statement: Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2026 Through September 30, 2026Official government statistical report · 10-16-2026
  2. U.S. federal budget deficit

    $1.775 trillion

    USD

    Fiscal 2025

    U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal ServiceFinal Monthly Treasury Statement: Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2026 Through September 30, 2026Official government statistical report · 10-16-2026
  3. U.S. federal receipts

    $5.403 trillion

    USD

    Fiscal 2026

    U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal ServiceFinal Monthly Treasury Statement: Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2026 Through September 30, 2026Official government statistical report · 10-16-2026

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