Spotify Premium Subscribers Reach 306 Million as Operating Income Hits EUR 672 Million and the Q4 Profit Guide Tops Estimates

Spotify Technology reported third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, Oct. 22, with premium subscribers up 9% year over year to 306 million, monthly active users up 11% to 788 million, and operating income of EUR 672 million, in line with the EUR 671.8 million average estimate compiled by Visible Alpha.

The print reads differently against the two yardsticks investors use, and the article keeps them separate. Against analyst consensus, revenue of EUR 4.97 billion came in EUR 10 million below the EUR 4.98 billion average estimate compiled by LSEG, a shortfall of about 0.2% on TickerGrove's calculation from those two figures. Against the company's own guidance, the same revenue line was in line with the roughly EUR 5.0 billion Spotify had guided to, which is also how the company presents it: total revenue up 16% year over year, or 14% on a constant currency basis, to EUR 5.0 billion. Operating income of EUR 672 million sat almost exactly on the EUR 671.8 million Visible Alpha average estimate and just above the roughly EUR 670 million the company had guided to. Gross margin was 33.0%, up 136 basis points year over year and 10 basis points above the 32.9% margin in the company's guidance, again on TickerGrove's calculation from the reported and guided figures.

Subscribers beat the guide, users met it exactly

Premium subscribers grew 9% year over year to 306 million, with growth across every region. Spotify added six million premium subscribers in the quarter, about one million more than the 305 million in its prior guidance. Monthly active users rose 11% year over year to 788 million, exactly meeting the 788 million the company had guided to. The distinction matters for how the quarter should be read: the paying base, which drives subscription revenue, came in ahead of plan, while the total audience landed precisely on plan rather than ahead of it. The company's release statement said gross margin and operating income also came in ahead of expectations, a claim the margin and operating lines support on the guidance comparison above.

The earnings-per-share line moved the other way

Earnings per share were EUR 2.48, down 24% from a year earlier. That decline sits alongside an operating income line that held in line with estimates, and this article does not convert it into a consensus verdict: the available consensus framings for the per-share line rest on different currency and basis conventions, so the settled facts are the EUR 2.48 figure itself and its 24% year-over-year decline. Co-chief executive Alex Norström framed the quarter on delivery against the company's own plan: "This was a quarter where we did what we said. We've built a strong business that keeps compounding, we invest when we see a path for growth, our costs are moderating, and there is more runway ahead." On the guidance yardstick, that framing is accurate for subscribers, margin and operating income; on the consensus yardstick, revenue was a fraction light and the per-share line fell sharply year over year.

Fourth-quarter guide: profit and subscribers above estimates, users a touch below

For the fourth quarter, Spotify projected revenue of EUR 5.2 billion and operating income of EUR 820 million, which converts to $920.53 million at the stated rate of $1 to 0.8908 euros, above the EUR 813.4 million average estimate compiled by LSEG. The company expects to gain 10 million premium subscribers in the quarter for a total of 316 million, above the Visible Alpha estimate of 314.7 million. Its monthly active users forecast of 818 million was marginally below the Visible Alpha estimate of 819 million. Both sides belong in the record: the profit and paying-subscriber guides sit above the compiled estimates, while the total-audience guide sits one million below its estimate, a gap of about 0.1% on TickerGrove's calculation. The fourth quarter is the holiday season the company describes as crucial for user growth, so the guide is the part of this report the market will grade first.

AI features and the wider catalog carry the growth case

The growth case management is selling rests on product breadth as much as on the subscriber count. Spotify offers AI-powered features such as its AI DJ, which curates personalized music mixes with spoken commentary, and prompt-based playlists that let users describe a mood or listening preference to generate tailored selections, while investors monitor profitability against AI investment and emerging music-generation rivals such as Suno and Udio. In the same release cycle, the company said it is expanding audiobook access to more than 180 markets by year end, bringing the Spotify Partner Program to 35 more markets, and launching Creator Memberships. Shares were last up more than 3% in volatile premarket trading on Thursday after the report. What to watch next is conversion: whether the 316 million premium and 818 million user guides are met in the holiday quarter, whether gross margin holds near 33% as AI and marketing spending continues, and whether the per-share line stabilizes after a 24% year-over-year decline in a quarter when the operating business performed to plan.