Saudi Arabia plans Houthi offensive to break Red Sea chokehold, Reuters reports

Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, six regional and Western officials told Reuters in an exclusive published Friday — with Riyadh weighing either an assault concentrated on the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint or a synchronized campaign across multiple fronts.

The plans were described to Reuters by six people with knowledge of the preparations — Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats — who said the operation is expected in the coming weeks and would be led by Yemeni ground forces overseen by Riyadh, with Saudi air power in support.

The plans have not been confirmed on the record. Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi group and the US military did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment. The six officials, who include Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters — and could not give a precise launch date, with estimates ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.

Two options, one strait

According to the officials, Riyadh is considering two options: a narrowly focused attack on the area around Bab el-Mandeb, the strait's southern chokepoint, or a broader offensive with synchronized attacks across the Yemeni governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf. More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized, depending on the scale — all the officials agreed on that figure.

The objective, which Reuters says has not been previously reported: reverse the rapid Houthi gains of last month, when the militants advanced down the coast and seized control of Bab el-Mandeb. Western diplomats and a Gulf official told Reuters that Riyadh has concluded it cannot enter new peace negotiations with the Houthis while they hold the strait — control of the waterway gives the militants, in the diplomats' words, significant global leverage.

The Hormuz alternative

That leverage is economic as much as military. Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea's southern exit, the passage connecting the Mediterranean to Asia — and it has assumed far greater importance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iran conflict has effectively closed. Whoever controls the strait controls the backup route for Gulf energy and Asian goods.

Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told Reuters he expects any offensive to be narrowly focused and "certainly more modest in scope" than the Saudi-led 2015 operation that sought to rout the militants. "Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic," he said.

Washington advises, Riyadh flies

The United States is already providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, one Western diplomat told Reuters — but Saudi allies are not expected to play a direct combat role. Reuters has previously reported that President Donald Trump rebuffed requests from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for direct US military support such as air strikes.

Riyadh has been lining up other partners. Turkey and Pakistan — with whom Saudi Arabia signed a joint defence agreement last month — have provided military equipment the kingdom is using in Yemen, Pakistani and regional officials said. Pakistan sent four cargo planes last month carrying air-defence systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone systems to Aden, the seat of Yemen's Saudi-backed government; Pakistani military advisers are on the ground alongside Saudi counterparts, and Turkish drones bought before the current war have been deployed over Yemen, the officials said.

Pakistan has also deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia itself, in waves beginning last year and after the recent escalation, to defend the kingdom's land borders and help intercept drones and missiles — though Islamabad has made no decision to send troops into Yemen in a fighting capacity, a Pakistani official said. The Pakistani and Turkish defence ministries did not respond to requests for comment. France, meanwhile, has announced it will send defensive systems and troops to help protect Yanbu, the Red Sea port city.

A fractured ground force

Any ground operation would rely on the disparate coalition of Yemeni factions that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates armed and trained earlier in the civil war — and analysts are skeptical of their readiness. "Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organised or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force," Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha told Reuters, adding that the factions are being tested right now as the Houthis apply pressure across several fronts.

The coalition fractured further last winter, when UAE-backed southern fighters tried to seize territory in the east and announce secession plans, only to be defeated by Saudi-backed fighters after a series of clashes. "Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces," Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, told Reuters.

The infrastructure worry

One of Riyadh's key concerns in launching a new offensive is protecting its own oil facilities and infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks; regional officials told Reuters the kingdom has asked several allies for help with defensive systems. The concern is fresh: on Tuesday, the Saudi-led coalition blamed the Houthis for a drone attack on the Taiba electrical distribution station in Medina, calling it a "deliberate provocation" — the Houthis have denied a separate alleged attempt against Mecca.

The backdrop: Saudi Arabia entered Yemen's civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition backing the internationally recognised government. A 2022 truce largely held until this year, when Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure spilled over from the Iran war.

For now, the offensive exists only in planning — the scale, the option chosen and the launch date all unconfirmed, with no on-the-record word from any party. But Riyadh has decided the status quo at Bab el-Mandeb is untenable, and the Red Sea corridor is now the region's next potential flashpoint.