Reliance Profit Beats Forecasts as Refining Windfall Drives Record Quarter

Reliance Industries said net profit attributable to its owners rose 40.6% to 255.48 billion rupees in the September quarter, beating forecasts on surging refining earnings.

The figures, reported on Friday for the three months ended September 30, drew their first full market reaction on Monday. Attributable profit rose from 181.65 billion rupees a year earlier. The frame matters because it is the profit analysts forecast.

A record quarter at group level

Gross revenue rose 27.8% to 3.62268 trillion rupees, the highest the company has reported. EBITDA, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, rose 23.9% to a record 62,409 crore rupees. One crore is ten million rupees.

The attributable profit beat the average analyst estimate of 213.48 billion rupees. The estimate came from a poll of analysts compiled by a financial data provider. Dow Jones reported both the profit and the estimate on Friday and again on Monday.

Refining did the heavy lifting

Oil-to-chemicals, the refining and petrochemicals business known as O2C, was the engine. Segment revenue rose 44.2% to 231,601 crore rupees. Segment EBITDA rose 67.9% to 25,203 crore rupees, its best quarter on record.

Fuel cracks, the margin between crude costs and fuel prices, rose three to three point seven times from a year earlier. Crude prices rose 40.6% in the quarter. Transportation fuel prices rose 50% to 78%. Polyester chain margins improved 33% and reached a three-year high.

The gains came despite higher crude oil premiums and elevated freight rates. Total throughput eased to twenty point six million tonnes, from twenty point eight million a year earlier. Production meant for sale was flat at eighteen point one million tonnes.

Jio's first quarter as a listed company

Jio Platforms completed its initial public offering on October 28, raising 30,188 crore rupees. The company called the offering the largest in India to date. Jio Platforms is now the country's second most valuable company, the release said.

Gross revenue at Jio Platforms rose 11.3% to 47,485 crore rupees. EBITDA rose 16.6% to 21,879 crore rupees, and margins expanded by 250 basis points. Net profit rose 13.7% to 8,387 crore rupees.

The subscriber base reached five hundred forty-two point four million at the end of September. Net additions were nine point one million in the quarter. Monthly churn held at 1.6%. Average revenue per user, or ARPU, rose 3.5% to 218.8 rupees a month.

Promotional offers for fixed broadband customers partly offset a better subscriber mix and higher usage, the company said. The 5G subscriber base reached three hundred million users. Fixed broadband connections reached thirty million.

Retail was the soft spot

Reliance Retail Ventures reported gross revenue of 91,716 crore rupees, up 6.4% from a year earlier. The comparison is adjusted for the demerger of the consumer brands business. The festive calendar shifting into the December quarter weighed on the result, the company said.

EBITDA before a one-time impairment charge fell 8.6% to 6,228 crore rupees. The margin narrowed by 120 basis points to 7.8%. The company cited a planned investment phase in digital commerce. It also cited input-cost inflation absorbed for customers, alongside the festive shift. Profit after tax fell 24.3% to 2,611 crore rupees.

Debt fell even as spending stayed high

Capital expenditure was 38,153 crore rupees in the quarter. The spending went mainly to oil-to-chemicals and new energy projects. It also funded consumer-business infrastructure and distribution. Net debt fell to 117,140 crore rupees at September 30, down from 122,914 crore rupees at the end of June.

Oil and gas was a smaller drag. Segment EBITDA fell 2.0% to 4,901 crore rupees. Lower output and prices at the KG D6 field drove the decline. Higher government levies added to it.

The market's verdict

Shares rose as much as 7.1% to 1,246.45 rupees in Monday trading, Dow Jones reported. The stock later traded 6.4% higher. Even after paring gains, it remained on track for its largest one-day gain since January 2024.

Citi raised its fiscal 2027 and 2028 EBITDA forecasts by 4% to 7%. It credited the stronger oil-to-chemicals business. It flagged continued retail weakness as a limit on further gains. It also trimmed its target price to 1,490 rupees, from 1,690 rupees.

Equirus Securities said consolidated EBITDA beat both its estimates and broader expectations. It credited the stronger-than-expected oil-to-chemicals performance.

What remains unknown

What remains unknown starts with how long fuel cracks stay near historic highs. The refining strength rested on tight global markets that can loosen quickly. Whether the festive shift pays back in retail's December quarter is also unproven. So is how much of the windfall Reliance keeps if crude premiums and freight stay elevated.

The tests in the December quarter

What to watch begins with the December-quarter festive season for retail. Refining margins and fuel cracks will show whether the windfall is durable. Subscriber additions and revenue per user will test Jio's growth after its listing. The next results will also show whether net debt keeps falling while spending stays high.