Wednesday’s GDP second estimate can still move Q2; 1.5% is the advance vintage

The last official reading of second-quarter growth is still the July 30 advance: real GDP up 1.5% at an annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Wednesday, August 26, at 8:30 a.m. EDT, BEA is scheduled to replace that vintage with the second estimate and, for the first time this quarter, corporate profits.

BEA’s public schedule, checked August 24, still lists two News releases for Wednesday, August 26, at 8:30 a.m.: GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits for the second quarter of 2026, and Personal Income and Outlays for July. Those are two rows, not one table. The GDP advance published July 30 already pointed at the same 8:30 a.m. EDT GDP slot.

The number on the books is still that advance. Real GDP rose 1.5% at an annual rate in 2026:Q2 after 2.1% in 2026:Q1, in the same July 30 document. Private demand, measured as real final sales to private domestic purchasers, rose 3.9%. Current-dollar GDP rose 7.9%. The quarterly PCE price index in that vintage is 5.1% at an annual rate. Those lines are labeled advance for a reason. They move if Wednesday’s vintage says they move.

Why it matters: the second estimate is also the first look at corporate profits for the quarter. The July 30 product did not carry them. What I’m watching is whether 1.5% holds and what the profits line shows — not a guess at either print. July personal income, if it arrives on schedule, is monthly income, spending, and PCE prices. It is not the quarterly GDP arithmetic, and it is not a CPI figure.