Diller Walks Away From $18 Billion MGM Takeover; Stock Craters 10%

Barry Diller pulled the plug on his $18 billion takeover of MGM Resorts on Wednesday, withdrawing People Inc's $48.30-a-share proposal and sending the casino operator's shares to their worst session in nearly two years.

MGM slid 10% on Thursday, hitting $33.90 — its lowest level in seven months. The rout wiped out every dollar of gains since People first disclosed its bid in June, when the stock touched an 18-year high. It was MGM's worst session since October 2024.

"There are lots of ingredients that go into a proposal of this kind on its way to completion," Diller said in a statement. "We didn't feel the mix was coming together in the way we had hoped and have decided not to pursue taking the company private at this time. What is undimmed is our belief in the future of MGM Resorts."

The $48.30 ceiling

The bid was always a stretch. People, which owns about 27% of MGM — 66.8 million shares — offered $48.30 in cash for the rest, valuing the company at more than $18 billion. But MGM had already fallen 27% from its June high before Wednesday's announcement, and analysts doubted $48.30 would ever be enough to entice the board.

"We did not believe a $48/share bid was going to entice the MGM board and there did not appear to be much appetite from People Inc. (in our view) to move materially above $48," Mizuho wrote. Bloomberg reported the deal stalled because Diller could not secure equity backing from outside co-investors.

A tale of two casino deals

The timing was brutal. Diller walked away just hours after Caesars Entertainment shareholders approved a $17.6 billion buyout by Tilman Fertitta's Fertitta Gaming — the other casino take-private of 2026. One billionaire's deal advances; the other's collapses.

The contrast is instructive. Fertitta's $31-a-share Caesars bid, plus roughly $11.9 billion in assumed debt, cleared its shareholder vote. Diller's $48.30 MGM bid never got that far — undone by a financing gap and a board that, in Mizuho's telling, was never going to bite at $48.

What Diller keeps

Diller is not leaving. "We continue to hold 66.8 million shares representing approximately 27% of MGM Resorts and have total confidence in both the management and the Company's prospects," he said. "We at People Incorporated remain open to and interested in the possibility of a strategic transaction with MGM Resorts and look forward to considering a range of alternatives."

MGM's board, for its part, said it "remains excited to continue to lead MGM Resorts as a standalone company."

The market read People's exit as capital discipline. People Inc shares were little changed Thursday even as MGM cratered. People stock is still down about a fifth since the bid was announced — the market never loved the deal.

The Strip vs. the spreadsheet

The fundamentals explain the skepticism. MGM owns properties accounting for roughly 40% of the Las Vegas Strip, but U.S. foot traffic has been sluggish. Growth has come from digital operations and Macau, not the core Vegas business. People, formerly IAC, began building its MGM stake in 2020 when COVID crushed casino stocks — Diller saw an undervalued asset. The market is no longer sure he was right.

Truist said the tumble "could reflect some event-driven exits" — arbitrageurs unwinding. Citi's James Hardiman expects People to "remain a principal, long-term investor," keeping his Neutral rating and $48 price target.

What to watch: Does Diller start selling down the 27%? Does another bidder emerge for MGM at a lower price? And does Fertitta's Caesars deal — past the shareholder vote but facing an FTC second request — actually close? The casino consolidation wave of 2026 is only half done.