OpenAI expects $70B revenue run-rate by year-end, Bloomberg reports — the gross-vs-net debate isn't over

The fastest-growing number in AI is also the slipperiest. A day after the Financial Times reported that OpenAI's annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September — about $20 billion less than the figure that had been circulating — Bloomberg reported Friday that the ChatGPT maker expects to reach a $70 billion run-rate by the end of the year, driven by enterprise growth. Both numbers can be true at once. That is exactly the problem.

The $20 billion accounting gap

On Thursday, the FT — citing financial documents shared with investors — reported that OpenAI had told its backers that September's annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion, well below the roughly $70 billion figure that had circulated in media reports late last month. Per the FT, the gap traces to OpenAI's own investors trying to line the company's number up against Anthropic's annualized figure. The two count differently: Anthropic's tally sweeps in gross sales through cloud providers, while OpenAI counts only its own net revenue.

A source familiar with the documents told CNN the $70 billion figure "did not come from OpenAI" — OpenAI's number is net revenue, while Anthropic's is effectively gross. In other words, the market spent Thursday repricing OpenAI on a number the company never put forward.

Bloomberg's counter: $70 billion by year-end

Friday's Bloomberg report reframes the story as a timing question, not a shortfall. Per MarketWatch's live coverage of the report, OpenAI aims to end the year at a $70 billion revenue run-rate — and the FT's September figure isn't being disputed. The arithmetic is demanding: going from $50 billion to $70 billion in a single quarter implies roughly 40% growth in three months, with the enterprise business expected to do the heavy lifting.

And neither figure can be independently checked: neither is publicly verifiable until the companies' prospectuses land — which is why a definitional footnote was able to move the Nasdaq.

The tape's verdict: sell first

The market didn't wait for the reconciliation. Thursday's session was the Nasdaq Composite's worst since mid-August — a 1.25% slide — while the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, per CNN. The declines accelerated after the FT report published midday. The selling concentrated exactly where the AI story lives: Nvidia fell 2.9%, Intel 5.3%, and Oracle 5.5%, with chipmakers, cloud providers, and the rest of the AI buildout supply chain caught in the downdraft.

"There are going to be tremors throughout all of the related sub-industries," Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said. "This has become a much narrower market that's dependent on the AI names to keep it afloat."

Friday: the bounce

Friday brought the snapback. At 5:54 a.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.81% and S&P 500 futures up 0.4%, with Nvidia up 1.6% in premarket trading, per Reuters. In early trading Nvidia added 1.5% — on pace to claw back roughly half of Thursday's 2.9% slide, per Investor's Business Daily. MarketWatch cited the Bloomberg report as one reason for the rebound in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. Both indexes stayed on track for weekly gains despite the two-day wobble — the selloff already looks like a one-day repricing of an accounting dispute.

Why this number moves markets

Run-rate revenue is a famously squishy metric — it often just annualizes a single month — but the stakes here are the AI capital-expenditure cycle itself. Hundreds of billions of dollars in data-center contracts, chip orders, and debt have been priced on the assumption that AI demand keeps compounding at a breakneck pace. If monetization isn't keeping up with the buildout, the whole complex reprices. The comparison set isn't standing still either: Anthropic's annualized revenue crossed $65 billion in July, per Bloomberg and Reuters reporting cited by CNN, and Anthropic is expected to launch its IPO this fall reportedly seeking a $2 trillion valuation. OpenAI, meanwhile, pushed its own listing to at least next year, citing AI safety concerns.

Only paper settles this

The only thing that settles this is paper. Both companies have filed confidential IPO paperwork; a public prospectus is the first time investors will see either revenue figure on a consistent, audited basis. Until then, watch whether OpenAI's enterprise business delivers the growth needed to hit $70 billion by December, how Anthropic prices its fall IPO, and whether OpenAI says anything publicly about either the Bloomberg expectation or the FT's September figure. A denial, a revised number, or an audited filing updates this story.