Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in October, With Core on Waller's Line

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday, as core inflation matched the pace Waller had flagged.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October figures at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. Its Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, or CPI-U, is the headline measure.

Core prices rose 0.3 percent in October. Core CPI strips out food and energy, which swing sharply from month to month.

Core rose 0.3 percent in September and in August as well. October was the third straight month at that pace.

September's headline pace was 0.6 percent, so October slowed on the surface. The core pace did not slow at all, and that split is what matters here.

Above the forecasts set before the release

A Reuters survey of economists forecast headline CPI up 0.3 percent for October. The same survey forecast core CPI up 0.2 percent.

Both outcomes came in 0.1 percentage point above those forecasts. Those survey figures are pre-release forecasts, not BLS results.

Three straight 0.3 percent core readings point to a firm underlying pace. Multiplied by 12, 0.3 percent annualizes to about 3.6 percent, a TickerGrove calculation.

That is a simple annualization of one month's pace. It is not a BLS figure and not a 12-month change.

Shelter carried the month as food and energy added pressure

The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in October. Shelter accounted for over thirty percent of the monthly all items increase, the BLS said.

Owners' equivalent rent rose 0.3 percent over the month. The rent index rose 0.2 percent.

The food index rose 0.5 percent after no change in September. Food at home rose 0.4 percent, and food away from home rose 0.5 percent.

The energy index rose 0.7 percent after a 5.2 percent jump in September. Gasoline rose 1.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, and electricity rose 0.9 percent.

Piped gas service fell 0.8 percent over the month. Energy's October pace was far below September's surge.

Gains spread beyond housing, food and energy

Recreation rose 0.8 percent, and transportation services rose 0.8 percent. Motor vehicle insurance rose 0.7 percent.

Medical care rose 0.3 percent over the month. Hospital services rose 0.8 percent, and physicians' services rose 0.4 percent.

Education rose 0.3 percent, and household furnishings and operations rose 0.2 percent. New vehicles rose 0.2 percent, and apparel rose 0.1 percent.

Services less energy services also rose 0.3 percent. Only a small number of major indexes fell in October, the BLS said.

Used cars and trucks fell 1.2 percent after rising 0.7 percent in September. The communication index fell 0.1 percent.

Before seasonal adjustment, the CPI-U stood at an index level of 337.511. The unadjusted monthly rise was 0.2 percent.

No annual rate for the headline or core indexes

The release carries no 12-month rate for the all items index or for core CPI. The BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations.

For most series, the BLS could not publish October 2025 indexes. It therefore cannot publish 12-month changes where that base is missing.

The gap sits in the comparison base, not in October 2026 itself. Readers get monthly changes only for the headline and core measures this month.

The core print sits on Waller's threshold

Governor Christopher Waller spoke in London on Tuesday morning, before the release. He said he would still support a 25 basis point December hike even if October inflation improves.

A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. The current target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.

A 25 basis point hike would lift that range to 4.00% to 4.25%. A 50 basis point hike would lift it to 4.25% to 4.50%, a TickerGrove calculation.

Waller set a second test for a larger move. If October core CPI came in around 0.3 percent or higher, a 50 basis point hike should be considered, he said.

October core CPI printed exactly 0.3 percent. The print sits on his stated threshold, no higher and no lower.

"Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take," he said. That warning applied only to the hot-print case.

Waller is one governor on the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's rate-setting panel. The committee, not any one member, decides on December 8-9.

At Monday's close, futures priced about an 85% chance of a December hike, Reuters reported. That pricing predates both the speech and the data.

After the data, bets on a half-point hike were close to 15% at midmorning, Reuters reported. Reuters described a broad bond market selloff alongside the shift.

What remains unknown

What remains unknown starts with the December vote itself. No FOMC decision exists, and one governor's threshold does not settle how the committee will vote.

The annual inflation picture is also unknown this month. With no October 2025 base, no year-over-year check on the headline or core pace exists.

November's CPI is scheduled for December 10, after the December 8-9 meeting. October is therefore the last CPI reading the committee sees before it decides.

Midmorning market pricing is a snapshot, not a settlement. It can move again as more officials speak and more data arrive.

December turns on the size of the hike

What to watch: the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 8-9. The question is whether 25 basis points suffice after a core print on Waller's line.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speak later on Tuesday, Reuters noted. Their readings of the same print are the next public test.