Maersk Raised Its Profit Outlook for a Third Time as Congestion Kept Freight Rates High

Maersk raised its full-year profit forecast for a third time on Thursday, after port congestion and resilient global trade kept container freight rates high through the third quarter.

The Danish group now expects underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $14.0 billion to $14.5 billion for 2026. Its previous range, set in August, was $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion.

Underlying operating profit (EBIT) is now expected at $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion, up from $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion. Free cash flow is expected to exceed $3 billion, against a previous floor of zero.

The forecast rests on global container market volume growth of about 4% this year. Maersk disclosed the upgrade in a separate market announcement alongside its quarterly report.

Third-quarter revenue rose 27% from a year earlier to $18.1 billion, Maersk reported. Group EBITDA rose to $4.7 billion from $2.7 billion, and EBIT rose to $3.3 billion from $1.3 billion.

The operating margin reached 18.1%. All three businesses - ocean shipping, logistics and terminals - contributed to the revenue growth.

Profit for the period rose to $2.51 billion from $1.55 billion a year earlier, the company's interim report showed.

The profit still missed forecasts

The quarter's EBITDA rose 75%, Reuters reported, but it fell short of the $5.04 billion mean forecast in an LSEG poll. The guidance raise therefore rests on pricing power, not on a quarter that beat expectations.

The same disruption that lifted rates also raised costs. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and widespread network congestion increased bunker, network and container handling costs, Maersk said.

Those costs also hurt schedule reliability. Congestion is simultaneously the group's biggest profit driver and its biggest operational problem.

Congestion did the lifting

A severe typhoon season in Asia caused substantial port congestion that absorbed vessel capacity. At its peak, global average port waiting times reached 16.6 hours, the highest level since January 2023.

Average spot freight rates, measured by the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index, rose 46% in the third quarter from the previous quarter. Global container demand grew between 2% and 4% from a year earlier.

"Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions, global trade has remained remarkably resilient," Chief Executive Vincent Clerc said in the company's statement.

Demand is increasingly driven by investment rather than consumption alone. Clerc pointed to electrification, energy and the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure generating industrial cargo flows around the world.

Maersk's fleet operated at full capacity, with vessel utilisation at 96%. The company said demand exceeded available space on certain routes.

Ocean carried the group

Ocean, the container shipping business, lifted EBIT to $2.6 billion, from $567 million a year earlier. Loaded volumes stayed high despite the weather disruption in Asia.

Logistics & Services revenue grew 13%, helped by landbridge solutions across the Gulf region and strong air and project forwarding volumes. Its EBIT margin improved to 5.8% from 5.5%.

Terminals delivered record revenue, with volumes up 2.6% and utilisation at 85%, against 90% a year earlier. Adjusted for a prior-year impairment reversal, its EBIT margin rose half a percentage point to 32.5%.

A guidance ladder built all year

Thursday's raise is the third step in a ladder built across 2026. The EBITDA range began at $4.5 billion to $7.0 billion in May and rose in June and again in August.

Each raise has followed the same pattern: rates stayed higher, for longer, than the company assumed. The full-year EBIT sensitivity is about $300 million for every $100 per container change in freight rates.

Maersk is investing the windfall in capacity. APM Terminals broke ground on a terminal in Bangladesh able to handle 900,000 containers a year and opened a new terminal in Brazil during the quarter.

The group also ordered 26 dual-fuel container vessels, each able to carry 18,600 containers. Deliveries are scheduled for 2029 and 2030.

What remains unknown

Maersk has not yet shown whether the rate strength survives an easing of the congestion that produced it. Its own sensitivity table means a modest rate retreat would cut deeply into future earnings power.

Nor is there a settled market verdict yet. The shares had only just begun trading in Copenhagen when the results landed, and no timestamped post-results price was available in the sources checked for this article.

How much of the upgraded full-year range depends on the Strait of Hormuz staying closed is also unstated. The company lists the closure as both a rate support and a cost, without separating the two effects.

What to watch next

Watch fourth-quarter spot rates as Asian port congestion clears, and any change in Hormuz routing. Watch also whether the group's next trading update holds the new ranges into the final weeks of the year.