Kaspi.kz Cuts Marketplace GMV Guidance to About 12% as Adjusted EBITDA Growth Stalls at 1%

Kaspi.kz cut its 2026 Marketplace GMV growth guidance to about 12% on Monday, from about 20% previously.

GMV is gross merchandise value, the total value of goods sold through the Marketplace. Kaspi.kz now forecasts GMV growth of about 12% for 2026.

That forecast replaces guidance of about 20% given earlier this year. The cut is eight percentage points, a calculation.

Third-quarter Marketplace GMV itself rose 8% on a constant-currency basis. Constant currency strips out exchange-rate moves between periods.

Consolidated revenue rose 18% on a constant-currency basis in the quarter. It reached 1.1 trillion tenge, or $2.5 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA rose only 1% to 408 billion tenge, or $925 million. Net income reached 281 billion tenge, or $637 million.

Shares fell about 2% in intraday trading on Monday. The snapshot is as of 3:12 p.m. ET, from Friday's $91.68 close.

That move is intraday only, not a settled reaction. Monday's closing price is the first settled verdict.

The guide was cut; the profit guide was not

Kaspi.kz reiterated guidance for about 5% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026. That forecast survived even as the GMV forecast fell.

Payments TPV guidance and Fintech loan-portfolio guidance are unchanged. TPV is total payment volume processed through the platform.

The company said softer GMV growth is broadly offset at the adjusted EBITDA level. Lower Fintech funding costs do the offsetting.

The first-quarter release shows what changed in the outlook. It reiterated full-year guidance with GMV growth of about 20%.

Shoppers bought more, and paid less per item

The company blamed lower value per item sold in Kazakhstan. A sharply stronger tenge sits behind that pressure.

Over the year to September, the dollar fell 20% against the tenge. The Turkish lira fell 32% against it.

In Kazakhstan, e-Commerce items sold rose 24% from a year earlier. The value per item sold fell 8%.

A stronger tenge cuts the local-currency cost of imported goods. Merchants can offer more competitive prices as a result.

"We remain confident in the strength of our businesses," said co-founder and chief executive Mikheil Lomtadze. He pointed to their long-term growth potential.

Marketplace earned more from each sale

Marketplace revenue rose 20% on a constant-currency basis in the quarter. It reached 466 billion tenge, or $1.1 billion.

Marketplace adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to 124 billion tenge. That is $281 million, well ahead of GMV growth.

Marketplace GMV rose 8% on a constant-currency basis. It reached 2.2 trillion tenge, or $4.9 billion.

e-Commerce revenue rose 23% on a constant-currency basis. It reached 343 billion tenge, or $779 million.

e-Commerce GMV rose 17% in the quarter. Advertising and delivery revenue supported the faster revenue growth.

The e-Commerce third-party take rate rose 210 basis points to 16.3%. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.

Annualized purchases per consumer also reached 16.3, up 27%. That is a frequency count, a different measure from the take rate.

Grocery, new stores and the AI assistant

e-Grocery GMV rose 40% in the third quarter. It rose 39% over nine months and serves 1.7 million consumers.

The Magnum Daily pilot runs 42 stores in Almaty. The company put its EBITDA margin at about 15%.

Kaspi.kz plans about 300 Magnum Daily stores by the end of 2027. Its medium-term ambition is about 3,000 stores.

Kasper, the company's AI assistant, reached 1.4 million consumers. It launched in July inside the Kaspi Super App.

The company says purchase conversion runs 1.5 times higher through Kasper. Average GMV per order runs twice text search.

Payments held steady; Fintech profit eased

Payments TPV rose 14% on a constant-currency basis. It reached 13.6 trillion tenge, or $30.8 billion.

Payments revenue rose 6% to 182 billion tenge, or $413 million. Adjusted EBITDA stayed broadly stable at 105 billion tenge.

That stability reflects investment in Kaspi Alaqan, the company's payment product. The EBITDA figure is $238 million.

Fintech revenue rose 19% to 489 billion tenge, or $1.1 billion. Average net loan portfolio growth was 14%.

Fintech adjusted EBITDA fell 1% to 179 billion tenge. That is $406 million, despite the revenue growth.

Kaspi.kz cut its three-month deposit rate by 100 basis points twice. The cuts came in August and October.

The company expects funding-cost relief from the fourth quarter. The benefit should be more meaningful in 2027.

Investments in Türkiye should also moderate significantly in 2027. Both shifts support the earnings outlook, the company said.

The Board proposed another quarterly dividend of 1,000 tenge per ADS. An ADS is a U.S.-traded share representing the stock.

The dividend is a proposal subject to shareholder approval. It is not a declared or paid dividend.

What remains unknown

What remains unknown starts with the settled verdict. The intraday fall is known; Monday's closing price is not.

Whether GMV growth recovers toward the old guide is unknown. The release gives no timetable beyond 2026.

How much funding relief lands in 2027 is also unknown. The company promises visibility, not a figure.

Whether value per item stabilizes is unknown as well. That depends on the tenge and on inflation.

The fourth-quarter report is the next test

What to watch: fourth-quarter results, due in early 2027. They will show whether funding costs eased as promised.

Full-year GMV against the revised 12% guide is the second test. So is adjusted EBITDA against the 5% guide.

The shareholder vote on the proposed dividend is the third test. So is Magnum Daily's expansion toward 300 stores.