Job Openings Jumped in September, but Hiring Barely Kept Pace

U.S. job openings rose sharply in September to about 7.5 million, a sign labor demand proved firmer than forecasters expected.

The figures come from JOLTS, the federal survey of openings and turnover. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the September report on Tuesday morning. It counts positions open on the last business day of the month.

An opening counts only when real work exists for the position. The job must be able to start within 30 days. The employer must also be actively recruiting outside the firm.

Openings beat the forecast by a wide margin

Openings reached 7.523 million on the last business day of September. That was up 333,000 from August. The openings rate rose to 4.5 percent, from 4.3 percent in August.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.100 million openings. The beat was about six percent, a TickerGrove calculation. Reuters described the increase as sharp, and its headline said openings increased sharply.

The bureau struck a cooler note in its own summary. It called the openings level little changed in September. That wording reflects statistical significance, not the size of the move against forecasts.

August openings were revised up by 111,000 to 7.190 million. The first report had shown 7.079 million. Part of September's jump therefore starts from a higher base than first reported.

Where the openings appeared

Professional and business services added 106,000 openings, reaching 1.310 million. State and local government, excluding education, added 104,000. Together they supplied nearly two-thirds of the total increase.

Total private openings rose 236,000 to 6.644 million. Government openings rose 98,000 to 880,000. The bureau itself named the state and local gain in its summary text.

Manufacturing openings rose 54,000 to 584,000, and construction added 36,000 to 298,000. Financial activities moved the other way. Its openings fell 19,000 to 364,000.

Hiring rose, but only modestly

Hires rose 131,000 to 5.402 million in September. The hires rate edged up to 3.4 percent, from 3.3 percent. The bureau called the change in hiring little over the month.

Openings exceeded hires by about 2.1 million, a TickerGrove calculation. That gap is the report's central tension. Employers advertised far more positions than the month's hiring filled.

Accommodation and food services added 158,000 hires, more than the national net gain. Hiring across the remaining industries therefore fell on balance. One industry's churn carried the headline hiring increase.

The split showed inside industries too. Manufacturing hires fell 34,000 to 313,000, even as its openings rose. Professional and business services hires fell 30,000 to 927,000. Construction hiring rose 49,000, and retail added 40,000.

That gap frames the wider labor picture. September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000, a separate government report showed. Employers are posting more jobs than that payroll pace would suggest.

Quits jumped, layoffs eased

Quits increased to 3.4 million in September, the bureau reported. The quits rate was little changed at 2.1 percent. August quits were revised down by 22,000 to 3.0 million.

Accommodation and food services drove the increase, with quits up 197,000 there. Its separations also rose 195,000, slightly above its hires. Total quits ran 375,000 higher than a year earlier.

Layoffs and discharges fell 127,000 to 1.641 million. The layoffs rate eased to 1.0 percent, from 1.1 percent. Layoffs in health care and social assistance fell 70,000.

Total separations were little changed at 5.3 million, with the rate unchanged at 3.3 percent. Other separations were little changed at 313,000. Economists quoted by Reuters describe a low-hire, low-fire market. September fit that description, openings aside.

What remains unknown

What remains unknown starts with reliability. Reuters notes the survey's response rate is low, and has fallen since before the pandemic. A thin response makes a single-month jump harder to trust.

It is also unknown whether these openings convert into jobs. Openings measure advertised demand on one day. They do not show how many postings employers fill, or how quickly they fill them.

The bureau's little-changed wording leaves a third unknown. A move this size can still sit inside the survey's margin for error. Later revisions will show whether September was signal or noise.

What to watch next

What to watch next is the October jobs report on Friday, November 6. A Reuters survey expects payrolls to rise 65,000. Unemployment is forecast unchanged at 4.2 percent.

Watch whether hiring follows openings in the next turnover report. The October JOLTS release is scheduled for Tuesday, December 1. A second strong openings month would be harder to dismiss.

Watch quits outside hospitality as well. September's jump was concentrated in one industry. A broader rise would suggest workers see real options beyond their current jobs.