Goodman and Digital Realty Confirm 9.9% NEXTDC Stake at A$9.22 a Share

NEXTDC's board considered the move opportunistic, its November 5 release said. The board noted the timing, two weeks after the October 21 guidance cut, and the institutions-only book build.

The board said it was not in possession of any takeover proposal. It said any bona fide approach would be considered on its merits, in the interests of all shareholders.

NEXTDC appointed Barrenjoey Advisory and UBS Securities Australia as joint lead financial advisers. Cadence Advisory is its independent financial adviser, and Mallesons is acting as legal adviser.

NEXTDC shares closed at A$9.85 on November 5, up 50.84% from the A$6.53 close the day before, StockAnalysis's price history shows. They closed at A$10.40 on November 6, up a further 5.58%.

The guidance cut that set the price

On October 21, NEXTDC cut FY27 guidance after Jemena suspended parts of the power works for M3 Melbourne. The next increase in grid supply to M3 is now expected in FY28.

Underlying EBITDA guidance fell to A$245 million to A$265 million, from A$385 million to A$410 million. Both ranges exclude the affected M3 contracts, including capacity already billing.

The August guidance had included about A$140 million of each of net revenue and underlying EBITDA from those contracts. NEXTDC also put new development projects and land acquisitions on hold.

The stock fell 41.7% to close at A$5.35 on October 21, its lowest since 2018, measured from the A$9.18 close of October 16 before the trading halt. By November 4 it had recovered only to A$6.53, the close the book build priced against.

Monday's trade in Sydney

At 10:47 a.m. AEDT on Monday, NEXTDC traded at A$9.85, down 5.3% on the day, Market Index's live blog reported. That is an intraday snapshot, not a settled close.

The morning fall came after last week's surge, not alongside fresh company news. Monday's confirmation itself repeated the terms the market had traded on since Thursday.

What remains unknown

Whether any collaboration follows is unknown. The buyers named no challenge, no proposal and no timetable, and NEXTDC has announced no engagement with them.

Whether the pair add to the stake, or move toward control under their reserved right, is also unknown. Their stated present intention is no control proposal and no takeover offer.

NEXTDC had not published a response to Monday's confirmation in the sources read for this article. Its November 5 position — no proposal held, approaches judged on their merits — is its latest word.

When power reaches M3 remains outside this story's control. Jemena does not expect to restart the suspended works before February 2027, on NEXTDC's October account.

The tests that come next

What to watch: NEXTDC's annual general meeting on November 20, when the company has said it will announce the outcome of its capital spending review. Any new substantial holder notice will show whether the 9.9% holding moves.

The Victorian planning decision on M3 Stages 6 and 7 is expected only after the November 28 state election. A NEXTDC response to Monday's confirmation would reset the board's position.