FOMC meets Sept. 15–16 with futures pricing a hike after August CPI

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15–16, 2026, with the policy statement due around 2:00 p.m. ET on September 16 and the chair’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, according to the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 calendar and FOMC meeting calendars. August consumer prices are already published — TickerGrove’s BLS coverage and the Labor Department summary show CPI-U up 0.4% month over month and 3.4% over the year, with core up 0.3% and 2.4% — while futures-implied hike odds after that print remain market pricing reported by CNBC and Reuters, not a Fed decision.

The Federal Reserve has confirmed the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting on its public calendars. Rate-path odds and economist survey figures below are reported expectations from futures pricing and reputable wires — not a Federal Reserve announcement of the decision.

What the September meeting is

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendars list a two-day meeting on September 15–16, 2026, marked with an asterisk as a meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. The Board’s September 2026 events calendar places the FOMC meeting release at 2:00 p.m. on the 16th — described as a two-day meeting September 15–16 with a press conference — and lists the FOMC press conference at 2:30 p.m. the same day.

Those calendar entries establish the timing of the statement window and the press conference. They do not disclose the rate decision, the vote, the language of the statement, or the contents of the projections.

The federal funds target range last set at the July 28–29, 2026 meeting was 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, according to TickerGrove’s sourced July hold coverage and matching the range Reuters cited alongside post-CPI futures pricing. Whether that range changes on September 16 is the decision still ahead.

August CPI already on the record

TickerGrove’s August CPI story, grounded in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index Summary for August 2026 (USDL-26-1496), reports that the CPI-U rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted in August after +0.1% in July, and 3.4% over the 12 months ended August. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in August and 2.4% over the year. Energy rose 2.1% over the month, with gasoline up 3.9% and accounting for more than a third of the monthly all-items increase.

Those prints are confirmed source facts for the inflation backdrop into the meeting. This Expectations piece does not reprint the full CPI release or treat the BLS summary as a rate decision.

What markets priced after the print

CNBC reported on September 11 that CME FedWatch odds of a quarter-point increase at the next FOMC meeting rose to nearly 86% after the August CPI release, up from 72% on Thursday, and separately quoted a BMO rates strategist saying futures were pricing about 90% odds of a hike on Wednesday. Reuters, also on September 11, said financial markets initially priced a 91% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Tuesday–Wednesday meeting before settling back to 87% on CME’s FedWatch tool, up from 72% on Thursday, with the funds rate still described in a 3.50%–3.75% range.

Those figures are attributed wire and futures-implied readings as of the September 11 CPI reaction window. They are not Federal Reserve announcements, and they can move before the statement posts.

A separate Reuters poll published September 9 — before the CPI print — found that about 70% of economists (65 of 93) expected the funds rate to remain in the 3.50%–3.75% range at the September 15–16 meeting. That poll is a pre-CPI economist survey, not the same object as post-CPI FedWatch pricing.