Economy
Policy
ECB account shows all members backed the July hold; some would not have opposed a hike
The 08-27-2026 account of the 07-22-2026 – 07-23-2026 meeting records that all members agreed to keep the three key rates unchanged. Members judged inflation risks to the upside. This is the record of that meeting, not a new rate decision.
TickerGrove Newsroom · Published 08-27-2026 · ECB
Sources
European Central Bank, Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council held on 07-22-2026 – 07-23-2026, published 08-27-2026, independently re-read. Monetary policy decisions, 07-23-2026, for the three unchanged key rates: deposit facility 2.25%, main refinancing operations 2.40%, marginal lending facility 2.65%. Monetary policy statement, 07-23-2026, checked for the same hold language. Lane and Schnabel remarks are staff presentations recorded in the account. Secondary wraps are not the number of record.
- Deposit facility
- 2.25%
- Main refinancing
- 2.40%
- June HICP
- 2.8%
Figures from the ECB 08-27-2026 account of the 07-22-2026 – 07-23-2026 meeting, with the three policy rates from the 07-23-2026 decisions page. No live euro-dollar quote. No next-hike call.
ECB monetary policy decisions, 07-23-2026
TickerGrove
The European Central Bank published the account of its 07-22-2026 – 07-23-2026 Governing Council meeting on 08-27-2026. All members agreed to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The 07-23-2026 decision had left the deposit facility at 2.25%, main refinancing operations at 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility at 2.65%. That hold was already public. The account is the record of the discussion, not a new vote.
What changed
The account’s news is the debate and the risk tilt. All members rallied behind the hold. Some members said they would not have opposed raising rates at the July meeting. Members concluded that risks to the inflation outlook were to the upside. Headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, decreased to 2.8% in June, from 3.2% in May. Headline inflation in the second quarter of 2026 was 0.2 percentage points below the June projections. Those June prints sit beside the July hold; they are not a later rate change.
Mr Lane, in his introduction, proposed that the Governing Council keep the three key rates unchanged after the June increase. Ms Schnabel’s financial-markets presentation, as recorded in the account, said the overnight-index-swap forward curve had a hike in September 2026 almost fully priced and an additional hike fully priced by February 2027. Those are staff presentations recorded in the account, not TickerGrove forecasts and not a call on the next decision. Lane’s introduction put oil at 89 US dollars per barrel, 6% lower than at the June Governing Council meeting, European gas prices 16% higher since that meeting, and the synthetic energy commodity price index 2% higher. The euro stood at 1.14 US dollars, 1.0% weaker against the dollar since the previous meeting. Energy inflation declined to 8.5%, from 10.8%. Non-energy inflation eased to 2.2%, from 2.4%. Food inflation declined to 1.5%, from 1.9%, and stood 0.4 percentage point below the June projections in the second quarter. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, edged down to 2.4% in June, from 2.6% in May, with goods inflation at 0.7% and services inflation at 3.2%. Unemployment stood at 6.2% in May. Bank lending to firms grew 4.0% annually, from 3.4% in April. Bank lending rates for firms were 3.6% in May and the cost of market-based debt 4.0%. Mortgage rates rose to 3.5% in May, from 3.4% in April, with mortgage lending growth at 3.1%. The composite purchasing managers’ index averaged 49.1 in the second quarter, from 51.3 in the first, and stood at 50.0 in June. The services PMI was 49.4 in June. Manufacturing PMI averaged 51.7 in the second quarter, from 50.6 in the first. The ECB wage tracker pointed to negotiated wage growth with unsmoothed one-off payments averaging 2.6% this year and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027. Household one-year inflation expectations eased from 3.5% to 3.0%. Market-based inflation compensation, as at the daily closing on 07-21-2026, averaged 2.9% for 2026, 2.3% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028. The wage tracker, the survey expectations, the market compensation, and the overnight-index-swap path are staff or market measures recorded in the account. They stay on separate lines from the June HICP prints.
Why it matters
Members concluded that risks to the inflation outlook were to the upside. All members agreed to the hold. Some members said they would not have opposed raising rates at the July meeting; they placed stronger emphasis on those upside risks. The account is the record of that debate. It does not re-vote the July rates.
What to watch
Members judged that they did not yet have sufficient visibility to tell whether the rise in inflation was a short-lived supply disturbance or broader underlying pressure, and that waiting until September would bring new projections, the second-quarter GDP estimate, further inflation data, and fresh wage and expectations evidence. The account does not name a calendar date for that September meeting. Communication, as recorded, was to stress a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, without pre-committing to a particular rate path, and not to suggest that the July pause meant the end of the tightening cycle. The next monetary policy account is foreseen on 10-08-2026.
An account is the later write-up of a meeting already decided
On 07-23-2026 the Governing Council left the three key ECB interest rates unchanged: 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%. The 08-27-2026 account is the record of what members said in that room. It is not a second rate decision.
Keep the unanimous hold, the would-not-oppose camp, and the upside risk tilt on separate lines
Use 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% from the 07-23-2026 decisions page. All members agreed to that hold. Some members said they would not have opposed a hike; that is recorded preference, not a dissent vote. Members judged inflation risks to the upside. June HICP of 2.8% is a measured print. The 0.2 percentage point second-quarter miss versus June projections is a comparison to staff projections, not a second print. Overnight-index-swap pricing in Schnabel’s presentation is market pricing as recorded, not a TickerGrove call.
What we do not know
This page does not invent a share-price move, a euro-dollar live quote beyond the account’s 1.14 US dollars, or a call on the next rate decision. Overnight-index-swap pricing of a September 2026 hike is market pricing from Schnabel’s staff presentation as recorded in the account, not a TickerGrove model. The wage tracker figures are staff measures. June projection comparisons are not HICP prints. The account does not name a calendar date for the September meeting. Secondary wraps are not the number of record.
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Sources & evidence
Primary documents used for this piece. Internal claim-lineage notes stay off this page.
ECB deposit facility rate
ECB monetary policy decisions, 07-23-2026
Left unchanged at the 07-22-2026 – 07-23-2026 meeting
ECB Governing Council
ECB monetary policy account, 08-27-2026
07-22-2026 – 07-23-2026 meeting, as recorded in the 08-27-2026 account
European Central Bank
Monetary policy statement, 07-23-2026
2026-07-23
Figures used in this article
Figures from the ECB 08-27-2026 account of the 07-22-2026 – 07-23-2026 meeting, with the three policy rates from the 07-23-2026 decisions page. No live euro-dollar quote. No next-hike call.
Figure
2.25%
- Entity
- ECB deposit facility rate
- Period / as-of
- Left unchanged at the 07-22-2026 – 07-23-2026 meeting
- Unit / basis
- %; one of the three key ECB interest rates
Figure
2.40%
- Entity
- ECB main refinancing operations rate
- Period / as-of
- Left unchanged at the same meeting
- Unit / basis
- %; one of the three key ECB interest rates
Figure
2.65%
- Entity
- ECB marginal lending facility rate
- Period / as-of
- Left unchanged at the same meeting
- Unit / basis
- %; one of the three key ECB interest rates
Figure
all members agreed
- Entity
- ECB Governing Council
- Period / as-of
- 07-22-2026 – 07-23-2026 meeting, as recorded in the 08-27-2026 account
- Unit / basis
- unanimous agreement to keep the three key rates unchanged
Figure
would not have opposed a hike
- Entity
- Some ECB Governing Council members
- Period / as-of
- Same meeting
- Unit / basis
- recorded preference; not a named dissent vote
Figure
upside
- Entity
- ECB Governing Council inflation-risk assessment
- Period / as-of
- Same meeting
- Unit / basis
- members concluded risks to the inflation outlook were to the upside
Figure
2.8%
- Entity
- Euro-area HICP inflation
- Period / as-of
- June 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; measured print, from 3.2% in May
Figure
3.2%
- Entity
- Euro-area HICP inflation
- Period / as-of
- May 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; prior measured print
Figure
0.2 percentage points
- Entity
- Euro-area headline HICP versus June projections
- Period / as-of
- Second quarter of 2026
- Unit / basis
- percentage points below the June staff projections; comparison, not a second print
Figure
8.5%
- Entity
- Euro-area energy inflation
- Period / as-of
- June 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; from 10.8%
Figure
10.8%
- Entity
- Euro-area energy inflation
- Period / as-of
- Prior print recorded in the account
- Unit / basis
- %
Figure
2.2%
- Entity
- Euro-area non-energy inflation
- Period / as-of
- June 2026, as recorded
- Unit / basis
- %; from 2.4%
Figure
1.5%
- Entity
- Euro-area food inflation
- Period / as-of
- June 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; from 1.9%
Figure
1.9%
- Entity
- Euro-area food inflation
- Period / as-of
- Prior print recorded in the account
- Unit / basis
- %
Figure
0.4 percentage point
- Entity
- Euro-area food inflation versus June projections
- Period / as-of
- Second quarter of 2026
- Unit / basis
- percentage point below the June staff projections; comparison, not a second print
Figure
2.4%
- Entity
- Euro-area core HICP excluding energy and food
- Period / as-of
- June 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; from 2.6% in May
Figure
2.6%
- Entity
- Euro-area core HICP excluding energy and food
- Period / as-of
- May 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; prior measured print
Figure
0.7%
- Entity
- Euro-area goods inflation
- Period / as-of
- June 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; HICP goods component
Figure
3.2%
- Entity
- Euro-area services inflation
- Period / as-of
- June 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; HICP services component
Figure
USD 89
- Entity
- Oil price in Lane’s introduction
- Period / as-of
- As at the July meeting, versus the June Governing Council meeting
- Unit / basis
- US dollars per barrel; 6% lower than at the June meeting; staff presentation, not a TickerGrove print
Figure
6%
- Entity
- Oil price change in Lane’s introduction
- Period / as-of
- Since the June Governing Council meeting
- Unit / basis
- % lower; staff presentation recorded in the account
Figure
16%
- Entity
- European gas prices in Lane’s introduction
- Period / as-of
- Since the June Governing Council meeting
- Unit / basis
- % higher; staff presentation recorded in the account
Figure
2%
- Entity
- Synthetic energy commodity price index in Lane’s introduction
- Period / as-of
- Since the June Governing Council meeting
- Unit / basis
- % higher; staff presentation recorded in the account
Figure
USD 1.14
- Entity
- Euro against the US dollar in Lane’s introduction
- Period / as-of
- As at the July meeting
- Unit / basis
- US dollars per euro; −1.0% versus the dollar since the previous meeting; account print, not a live quote
Figure
−1.0%
- Entity
- Euro against the US dollar in Lane’s introduction
- Period / as-of
- Since the previous Governing Council meeting
- Unit / basis
- %; account print, not a live quote
Figure
6.2%
- Entity
- Euro-area unemployment rate
- Period / as-of
- May 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; close to historical lows, as recorded
Figure
4.0%
- Entity
- Bank lending to euro-area firms
- Period / as-of
- Annual growth, from 3.4% in April
- Unit / basis
- %; annual growth rate
Figure
3.4%
- Entity
- Bank lending to euro-area firms
- Period / as-of
- April annual growth, as recorded
- Unit / basis
- %
Figure
3.6%
- Entity
- Bank lending rates for euro-area firms
- Period / as-of
- May 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; unchanged in May
Figure
4.0%
- Entity
- Market-based debt cost for euro-area firms
- Period / as-of
- May 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; unchanged in May
Figure
3.5%
- Entity
- Euro-area mortgage rates
- Period / as-of
- May 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; from 3.4% in April
Figure
3.4%
- Entity
- Euro-area mortgage rates
- Period / as-of
- April 2026
- Unit / basis
- %; prior print
Figure
3.1%
- Entity
- Euro-area mortgage lending growth
- Period / as-of
- As recorded for May
- Unit / basis
- %; annual growth, as recorded
Figure
49.1
- Entity
- Euro-area composite PMI
- Period / as-of
- Second-quarter 2026 average
- Unit / basis
- index points; from 51.3 in the first quarter
Figure
51.3
- Entity
- Euro-area composite PMI
- Period / as-of
- First-quarter 2026 average
- Unit / basis
- index points
Figure
50.0
- Entity
- Euro-area composite PMI
- Period / as-of
- June 2026
- Unit / basis
- index points
Figure
49.4
- Entity
- Euro-area services PMI
- Period / as-of
- June 2026
- Unit / basis
- index points
Figure
51.7
- Entity
- Euro-area manufacturing PMI
- Period / as-of
- Second-quarter 2026 average
- Unit / basis
- index points; from 50.6 in the first quarter
Figure
50.6
- Entity
- Euro-area manufacturing PMI
- Period / as-of
- First-quarter 2026 average
- Unit / basis
- index points
Figure
2.6%
- Entity
- ECB wage tracker, negotiated wage growth with unsmoothed one-off payments
- Period / as-of
- This year, as recorded in Lane’s introduction
- Unit / basis
- %; staff measure, not a TickerGrove forecast
Figure
2.7%
- Entity
- ECB wage tracker, negotiated wage growth with unsmoothed one-off payments
- Period / as-of
- First quarter of 2027, as recorded
- Unit / basis
- %; staff measure, not a TickerGrove forecast
Figure
3.5%
- Entity
- Household one-year inflation expectations
- Period / as-of
- Prior survey reading recorded in the account
- Unit / basis
- %; survey measure, eased to 3.0%
Figure
3.0%
- Entity
- Household one-year inflation expectations
- Period / as-of
- Latest survey reading recorded in the account
- Unit / basis
- %; survey measure, from 3.5%
Figure
2.9%
- Entity
- Market-based inflation compensation
- Period / as-of
- 2026, as at the daily closing on 07-21-2026
- Unit / basis
- %; market measure in Schnabel/Lane material as recorded, not a TickerGrove forecast
Figure
2.3%
- Entity
- Market-based inflation compensation
- Period / as-of
- 2027, as at 07-21-2026
- Unit / basis
- %; market measure as recorded
Figure
2.0%
- Entity
- Market-based inflation compensation
- Period / as-of
- 2028, as at 07-21-2026
- Unit / basis
- %; market measure as recorded
Figure
September 2026 almost fully priced
- Entity
- Euro-area OIS forward curve in Schnabel’s presentation
- Period / as-of
- As recorded for the July meeting
- Unit / basis
- market pricing of a hike; staff presentation, not a TickerGrove call
Figure
February 2027 fully priced
- Entity
- Euro-area OIS forward curve in Schnabel’s presentation
- Period / as-of
- As recorded for the July meeting
- Unit / basis
- market pricing of an additional hike; staff presentation, not a TickerGrove call
Figure
10-08-2026
- Entity
- ECB
- Period / as-of
- Next monetary policy account, as printed
- Unit / basis
- calendar date; account publication, not a rate-decision date