China's September exports jump 36.3%, far above forecasts, as the year's trade surplus hits $938.1 billion

China's exports grew at their fastest pace since February last month, rising 36.3% from a year earlier and far outstripping forecasts, as overseas demand for chips, cars and other high-tech goods kept factories busy despite weak spending at home.

What the customs data showed

China's exports rose 36.3% in September from a year earlier in dollar terms, to $447.2 billion, according to figures from the General Administration of Customs released on Wednesday, Oct. 14. It was the fastest growth since February and far above the 25.5% gain economists had forecast in a Reuters poll. Exports grew 25% in August.

Imports climbed 31% to $313.7 billion, up from 28.2% growth in August and ahead of a 24.5% forecast. That left a September trade surplus of $133.5 billion.

For the first nine months of the year, exports totaled $3.37 trillion, up 21.3%, and imports rose 27.5% to $2.43 trillion. The surplus for the period reached $938.1 billion. At that pace China is on course to pass $1 trillion sooner than it did last year unless shipments slow sharply in the fourth quarter, Reuters reported.

In yuan terms, which the customs agency used at its briefing, goods trade in September topped 5 trillion yuan in a single month for the first time, rising 27.5% to 5.16 trillion yuan. It was the sixth straight month of double-digit growth. Total trade growth picked up each quarter this year, from 15.3% in the first quarter to 18.3% in the second and 22.3% in the third.

Chips and cars did the heavy lifting

Wang Jun, a vice minister of the customs administration, told a State Council Information Office briefing in Beijing that trade growth in the first three quarters was the fastest for that period in nearly five years. Equipment manufacturing accounted for nearly 90% of the increase in exports, he said, and intermediate goods made up more than half of all exports.

Exports of integrated circuits rose 99.1% in the first nine months, the agency said. Electric vehicle exports grew 72.3%, lithium batteries 36.4%, and wind turbines and parts 22.4%.

Higher prices are part of that story. In September the value of China's integrated circuit board exports jumped 136% from a year earlier, while the number of units shipped rose only 1%, according to CNBC calculations from official figures. Car exports rose 56.3% to 1.18 million vehicles in the month, and their value climbed 62%.

Demand for Chinese-made components for the data centers that power artificial intelligence has helped fuel exports. With the global build-out of AI infrastructure showing little sign of slowing, analysts expect demand for Chinese-made technology products, including semiconductors, to stay strong.

The import side showed the same pull. Imports of storage components rose 150% in the first three quarters and integrated circuits 56.6%, Wang said. Crude oil was the exception: import volumes fell by double digits for a sixth straight month, even as the value of those purchases rose for the first time since May, according to data from Wind Information.

Where the goods went

Exports to the U.S. grew by nearly 39.6% in September, faster than shipments overall, according to customs data compiled by Wind, and the monthly surplus was the highest since January 2025. Over the first nine months, China's trade with the U.S. rose 4.1% to 3.18 trillion yuan, the customs agency said, compared with 22.7% growth with Southeast Asia's ASEAN bloc, to 6.84 trillion yuan, and 8.4% with the European Union, to 4.78 trillion yuan.

China's exports grew to every major country tracked by the customs agency in the first three quarters, while imports from Malaysia, Germany and the U.K. fell.

What the surge means for Beijing

Exports have become a key growth engine for an economy where consumer spending and investment remain weak and the property market has been in a downturn for years. The September numbers suggest policymakers could still rely on moderate policy support to meet this year's growth target of 4.5% to 5%.

Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International Holdings, said in a note that the surplus "underscores the continued strength of China's external sector despite lingering concerns over domestic demand."

The same numbers raise the stakes in China's trade disputes. Washington and Brussels blame Beijing's industrial and monetary policies for the size of the surplus. Last week China's central bank issued a lengthy statement rejecting claims that it keeps the yuan artificially weak to gain a trade edge.

The European Union said last week that China had agreed to halve its exports of hybrid cars to the bloc. Those limits could weigh on China's auto trade over time, but with the measures likely to be laid out in December, exporters may rush shipments out before then. With Washington, Beijing agreed at last month's summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to cut tariffs on $30 billion of each other's goods and to extend their broader trade truce by two months, to January.

Wang said the fundamentals behind China's exports had not changed heading into the fourth quarter. The Canton Fair, the country's largest trade exhibition, opens on Thursday.