China's Trade Surplus Passes $1 Trillion in 10 Months as Imports Jump 41.6%

China's trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, customs data showed on Tuesday.

China's General Administration of Customs released the October figures on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. A trade surplus is the amount by which a country's exports exceed its imports.

The milestone came a month earlier than in 2025. It is the second straight year the ten-month surplus has topped $1 trillion.

Exports beat the poll, and imports beat it by more

Exports rose 35.2% in October from a year earlier, to $412.3 billion. The median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists was 33.5%.

Export growth eased only slightly from September's 36.3%. Customs said high-technology goods, including semiconductors and autos, supported rapid export growth this year.

Imports rose 41.6% from a year earlier, to $307.1 billion. September's import growth was 31.0%, and the poll median was 32%.

CNBC called the increase the fastest import growth in five years, citing LSEG data. The same LSEG data put October's surplus at its lowest since April.

The monthly surplus fell to $105.3 billion

Because imports grew faster, October's surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion. September's monthly surplus was $133.5 billion.

The result also missed the poll's median forecast of $125.8 billion. The shortfall came from the import surge, not from any weakness in exports.

The ten-month total is still about 87% of last year's full-year record, a TickerGrove calculation. That gap is also a TickerGrove calculation, at about $160 billion over November and December.

Technology and energy drove the import surge

CNBC's calculations from the official figures put high-technology import values up 72% from a year earlier. Those are values, the money spent, not unit volumes.

By the same CNBC calculations, crude oil import values rose about 41%. ING reported crude oil import volumes fell 13.3% from a year earlier, so higher prices drove the value rise.

Liquefied natural gas import values rose about 50%, and coal values about 60%, by the same CNBC calculations.

Tianchen Xu, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC the drivers were technology goods, copper and energy. Reuters reported crude oil imports climbed to their highest level since March.

Chips surged in October and across the year

In October alone, the Associated Press reported, semiconductor export values soared 137.1% from a year earlier. That is a value increase, not a count of chips shipped.

Reuters reported semiconductor export values rose 111.1% over the first ten months. Shipments of high-technology products rose 47.9% over the same period.

Exports to the United States rose 32.9% in October. China's surplus with the United States narrowed to $32.71 billion, from $34.01 billion in September.

United States-bound shipments rose 12.1% over the first ten months. That followed a 20% fall last year, when tariff increases depressed the comparison.

Europe's gap widened as vehicle limits approach

Exports to the European Union rose 24.3% in October, the Associated Press reported. Imports from the bloc fell more than 4%, leaving a monthly surplus of $33.4 billion.

Beijing and Washington extended their trade truce by two months on Monday. It had been due to expire on Tuesday, the day the data landed.

The yuan figures tell the same story

Measured in yuan, China's goods trade reached 44.81 trillion yuan in the first ten months, up 20%. Customs said the pace accelerated from 18.8% over the first nine months.

Yuan exports totaled 25.99 trillion yuan, up 17.6%. Yuan imports totaled 18.82 trillion yuan, up 23.6%.

In October alone, yuan exports rose 28.7% and yuan imports rose 34.7%. The dollar and yuan growth rates differ because currency moves change the converted values.

Strength abroad, softness at home

The export strength offsets weak demand at home. Reuters described subdued consumption and a protracted property slump weighing on the economy.

September retail sales rose just 1.1%. Domestic vehicle sales fell for a 12th straight month in October, while car exports kept a solid pace.

Markets barely reacted to the release. Reuters reported the blue-chip CSI300 index and the Shanghai Composite each edged up 0.1% by the lunch break.

What remains unknown

What remains unknown starts with whether October's import pace holds. One faster month does not establish a durable narrowing of the imbalance.

Whether the full-year surplus passes last year's $1.2 trillion record is also unknown. November and December trade has not happened yet.

October's chip export volumes were not reported in the accounts this desk read. Whether the value surge came mostly from prices or from more units shipped therefore stays unknown.

How trading partners respond is unstated. Any new curbs or tariff steps would change the outlook for 2027.

The Shenzhen meeting and December curbs come next

What to watch: the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen next week. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet there, for a third time this year.

Agreed European limits on Chinese hybrid vehicle shipments take effect on December 1. Customs publishes the November trade figures in December.