Brent nears $100 as Hormuz disruption adds pressure ahead of CPI and Fed

Brent crude closed in on $100 a barrel Monday as shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz tied to U.S. strikes on three Iranian crude carriers put energy costs in focus ahead of Friday’s CPI report and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

The CNBC/ICE Brent continuous contract, @LCO.1, showed a session high of $98.06 and a last price of $97.31 at approximately 1:30 p.m. EDT on Labor Day. Those are intraday readings, not settlement prices.

U.S. Central Command said it struck three Iranian crude oil carriers on September 5 after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles toward two U.S. Navy warships. According to CENTCOM, the U.S. carrier and guided-missile destroyer evaded the attacks, and no American personnel were harmed.

CENTCOM said it permanently disabled M/T Downy off Kharg Island and M/T Stark 1 near Jask. It said it completely destroyed the unladen M/T Kylo, also known as Noxen, in the Gulf of Oman after directing the crew to abandon ship. These descriptions and the account of the preceding missile attacks are U.S. military claims.

The shipping disruption at issue follows those strikes on crude carriers. The release does not establish the scale or duration of any wider interruption to transit through Hormuz.

Oil approaching $100 creates a potential cost problem for fuel buyers. If elevated crude prices persist and feed through to refined fuels, households and businesses could face higher energy and transport bills. The size and timing of that pass-through remain uncertain.

The calendar makes the inflation backdrop especially relevant. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release August CPI on Friday, September 11, at 8:30 a.m. ET. That report covers August; it will not measure September’s latest oil move. Instead, the new energy pressure could complicate the outlook policymakers assess alongside the report.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets September 15–16. More expensive oil could keep inflation concerns elevated, but it does not establish what the Fed will decide.

OPEC+ provided no October production-policy change. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman met virtually on September 6 and agreed to maintain September 2026 required production levels for October. This was neither a new cut nor a hike.

That decision leaves the announced production requirements unchanged while buyers assess the shipping disruption. Required production levels alone do not establish how much crude will be produced or delivered.

Sustained higher oil prices could support producers’ revenue per barrel while squeezing fuel-intensive businesses if they cannot pass costs to customers. Actual earnings effects depend on volumes, hedging and costs; the Brent quote alone does not settle who comes out ahead.

Friday’s August CPI release is the next scheduled inflation checkpoint, followed by the September 15–16 Fed meeting and its expected September 16 decision. Watch how policymakers discuss the energy outlook without assuming a particular rate move.

For Hormuz, watch for verified evidence of shipping recovery and further CENTCOM or IRGC actions affecting crude carriers or transit. The unresolved question is how long the disruption lasts and whether it constrains deliveries.

The seven OPEC+ countries are scheduled to meet again on October 4. Any subsequent production-policy change should be assessed separately from September 6’s decision to hold required levels steady.